Economic impacts of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies in Vanuatu and Timor-Leste
Date
2016-05
Authors
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Dey, Madan
Valmonte-Santos, Rowena
Chen, Oai Li
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
The fisheries sectors in Vanuatu and Timor-Leste are important sources of food and income. Similar to other developing countries and those in the Pacific, they are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change more so because of their geographic location, socioeconomic conditions and political instability. Nonetheless, there are approaches to alleviate the damaging effects of climate change in the region's fisheries sector. Using economic modeling, this paper estimates the economic costs of potential climate change adaptation strategies for the fisheries sector in Vanuatu and Timor-Leste through assessment of alternative future scenarios. Strategies include aquaculture development, natural resource management through establishment and/or expansion of marine protected areas, and deployment of low-cost inshore fish aggregating devices. Modeling results demonstrate that the above innovations will enable the two countries to significantly improve coastal and freshwater fish production in the medium-term (2035) and long-term (2050). Fish consumption is projected to grow due to population and income improvements; yet considerable increases in production will augment demand. Furthermore, national-level gains are projected from these adaptation strategies through fish exports. Improved production under climate change will require significant investments from the national governments of Vanuatu and Timor-Leste and/or private sectors.
Description
Keywords
economic modeling, aquaculture, natural resource management, fish aggregating devices, Vanuatu, Timor-Leste, Agricultural Sciences
Citation
Rosegrant, M. W., Dey, M. M., Valmonte-Santos, R., & Chen, O. L. (2016). Economic impacts of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies in Vanuatu and Timor-Leste. Marine Policy, 67, pp. 179-188.
Rights
Rights Holder
© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Rights License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.