Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results

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dc.contributor.authorDey, Madan
dc.contributor.authorRosegrant, Mark W.
dc.contributor.authorGosh, Kamal
dc.contributor.authorChen, Oai Li
dc.contributor.authorValmonte-Santos, Rowena
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-23T18:08:15Z
dc.date.available2021-03-23T18:08:15Z
dc.date.issued2016-01
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a supply-and-demand model for the fisheries sector developed to assess the effect of climate change and related adaptation strategies in four Pacific coral triangle (CT) countries—Fiji, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu. The modeling approach used in this paper represents climate change in terms of supply shocks, and works out its economic consequences using the microeconomic tools of supply and demand. The analysis has considered three time periods: current (represented by the average data of the three most recent available years 2006–2009), medium term (2035), and long term (2050). The study covers all fisheries and aquaculture species, grouped into six key subsectors: tuna, other oceanic finfish, coastal finfish, coastal invertebrates, freshwater finfish, and freshwater invertebrates. Results of the baseline model indicate that with rising per capita income and population, fish demand is expected to increase substantially up to 2050. In contrast to significant growth in fish demand, growth in domestic fish production is projected to be slow due to climate change and other constraints. There is a strong likelihood that many Pacific countries will become large net importers of fish under the baseline scenario (i.e., without implementing climate change adaptation strategies). Likewise, per capita consumption of domestically produced fish is projected to decline under the baseline scenario.
dc.description.departmentAgricultural Sciences
dc.formatText
dc.format.extent8 pages
dc.format.medium1 file (.pdf)
dc.identifier.citationDey, M. M., Rosegrant, M. W., Gosh, K., Chen, O. L., & Valmonte-Santos, R. (2016). Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results. Marine Policy, 67, pp. 156-163.
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.011
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10877/13281
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rights.holder© The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
dc.rights.licenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
dc.sourceMarine Policy, 2016, No. 67, pp. 156-163.
dc.subjectsupply-demand model
dc.subjectfisheries
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectFiji
dc.subjectSolomon Islands
dc.subjectVanuatu
dc.subjectTimor-Leste
dc.subjectAgricultural Sciences
dc.titleAnalysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results
dc.typeArticle

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