Real-Time Forecasting of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks using the Integrating Compartment Model and Assimilation Filtering

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dc.contributor.authorZhan, Zhicheng
dc.contributor.authorDong, Weihua
dc.contributor.authorLu, Yongmei
dc.contributor.authorYang, Peng
dc.contributor.authorWang, Quanyi
dc.contributor.authorJia, Peng
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-31T17:57:14Z
dc.date.available2019-07-31T17:57:14Z
dc.date.issued2019-02
dc.description.abstractHand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious viral infection, and real-time predicting of HFMD outbreaks will facilitate the timely implementation of appropriate control measures. By integrating a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) assimilation method, we developed an integrated compartment model and assimilation filtering forecast model for real-time forecasting of HFMD. When applied to HFMD outbreak data collected for 2008-11 in Beijing, China, our model successfully predicted the peak week of an outbreak three weeks before the actual arrival of the peak, with a predicted maximum infection rate of 85% or greater than the observed rate. Moreover, dominant virus types enterovirus 71 (EV-71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) may account for the different patterns of HFMD transmission and recovery observed. The results of this study can be used to inform agencies responsible for public health management of tailored strategies for disease control efforts during HFMD outbreak seasons.
dc.description.departmentGeography and Environmental Studies
dc.formatText
dc.format.extent9 pages
dc.format.medium1 file (.pdf)
dc.identifier.citationZhan, Z., Dong, W., Lu, Y., Yang, P., Wang, Q., & Jia, P.. (2019). Real-Time Forecasting of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks using the Integrating Compartment Model and Assimilation Filtering. Scientific Reports, 9(2661).
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38930-y
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10877/8432
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.rights.holder© 2019 The Authors.
dc.rights.licenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
dc.sourceScientific Reports, 2019, Vol. 9, Article Number 2661.
dc.subjecthand-foot-and-mouth disease
dc.subjectviral infections
dc.subjectoutbreaks
dc.subjectpublic health management
dc.subjectGeography and Environmental Studies
dc.titleReal-Time Forecasting of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks using the Integrating Compartment Model and Assimilation Filtering
dc.typeArticle

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